its-bsts-experiments

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Python research code comparing interrupted time series (segmented regression) and Bayesian structural time series counterfactuals. Includes a Gibbs-sampled BSTS, Monte Carlo experiments on trends, seasonality, effect shape and triggered launches, and a placebo study of the 1983 UK seat belt law.

bayesian-str... causal-infer... econometrics interrupted-... monte-carlo placebo-tests Python reproducible... segmented-re... state-space-... time-series

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October 03, 2026

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